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Video: Reza Aslan on Iran Parts 1+2

Here are two videos from a lecture given by noted religion scholar and Iran expert Reza Aslan. An absolutely fabulous historical overview of post-Revolutionary Iran and a timely analysis of the current situation. Must watch!

Part 1

Part 2

Afternoon Roundup – Tehran Today, The Government is in Control (for now)

Another day, another series of disrupted demonstrations. This has been the pattern we’ve seen since Saturday’s brutal crackdown. At this point you have to wonder whether the opposition movement has the capability to organize and mobilize in a way that’s conducive to sustaining the movement.

There are rumors that Mousavi is under 24-hour house arrest (and more speculation that his arrest is imminent). With these rumors being fueled by the fact that Mousavi has not been seen in public in days, the movement seems to be having a crisis of leadership. I’ve written in previous posts how Mousavi fed off of the energy of the crowds and in turn the crowds fed off of the defiance that Mousavi displayed toward the Khamenei/Ahmadinejad led government. With Mousavi’s movement and actions severely limited, this symbiotic relationship seems to have been broken for the time being.

Over the course of one week we have gone from opposition rallies numbering anywhere from the mid-hundreds of thousands to a reported one million people. Today’s ‘Sea of Green’ rally has varying estimates ranging from 300 to 1,000 demonstrators. The governments tactics to date have no doubt yielded their intended results.

All hope is not lost, but that isn’t to say that the Opposition, in its nascent stages, is not fast approaching a seminal moment. Also bare in mind that this movement is operating on parallel tracks. The street protests, and the backroom dealing that is no doubt going on in the Clerical stronghold city of Qom, where reports peg Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the powerful Chairman of the Assembly of Experts (the body responsible for selecting a Supreme Leader), and principle opponent of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei (read here for more on that dynamic).

Here is a roudup of the day’s headlines out of Iran:

• Khamenei Vows No Retreat: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed on Wednesday he would not budge in response to protests over a disputed election that has sparked the biggest street demonstrations since the 1979 Islamic revolution. “I had insisted and will insist on implementing the law on the election issue … Neither the establishment nor the nation will yield to pressure at any cost,” Khamenei said.
• Iranian candidate Mohsen Rezaie withdraws voting complaint: “He said, as a ’selfless soldier for the Islamic republic,’ he could not pursue his allegations given the ‘critical’ and ‘pivotal’ political and social conditions of the country. He said controlling the situation was more important than election results.” At the end of the day, these candidates belong to the system, even if they got burned by the handling of the elections. In other words, they have a vested interest in the continuity of the status quo.
• There is news that a memorial march is scheduled for Thursday in Tehran. We’ll see tomorrow what kind of turnout it yields.
• Wednesday Protests: “Eyewitness reports say there have been clashes near the parliament building in the capital Tehran, in the streets around Baharestan Square.” Reports suggest that the number of protesters was around 300.

Check back later tonight for more updates and a piece on what we can expect in Iran tomorrow

Video of Protesters Attacking Basiji

Great video of protesters taking the fight to the Basiji:

State Run Media Driving Wedge Between Mousavi and Supporters

The Huffington Post is reporting the following:

11:02 AM ET — State media: Mousavi ‘disowns’ Wednesday protest. From the state-funded PressTV: “Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s website claims that the gathering outside Iran’s Parliament (Majlis) building is not called by the defeated presidential contender. Following report that supporters of Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi — another defeated candidate — have staged an illegal gathering the parliament building on Wednesday Mousavi’s website Kalemeh denied that he is behind the move ‘This gathering has no link, whatsoever, to Mr. Mousavi and his camp, and is held independently,’ kalemeh.ir reported on Wednesday.”

Mousavi’s camp actually posted yesterday that the rally was organized independently of his efforts. But this is account reflects two points: 1) the state’s efforts to divide Mousavi from his supporters, and 2) the threat of arrest or worse that Mousavi faces in being associated with any behavior by opposition demonstrators that the state deems illegal.

In a previous post I wrote about the symbiotic relationship forming between Mousavi and his followers. It looks as if the authorities are trying to strike at the heart of that relationship. Here is an excerpt from my post last week:

What has been most fascinating about the events of the last week is the speed at which they have developed. In the election aftermath of last Friday the Reform movements initial reaction was a recount. That sounds simple and fair enough, but Khamenei and Ahmadinejad’s violent and insulting response to that request opened up a pandoras box of discontent and frustration that has accumulated over the course of the last decade. The debate went from whether there should be a recount to whether the regime should be toppled: it took the conflict from one of varying degrees, to a conflict of radically differing proportions.

The dynamic that has developed between Mousavi and the protesters has also been interesting. Some news organizations have dubbed Mousavi the ‘Accidental Reformist’, and there is no doubt that there is something to the idea that this is a man who happened to be at the right place at the right time in history. But beyond that, there seems to be a symbiotic, mutually reassuring relationship developing between Mousavi and his followers. He feeds off of the energy of the crowds and the crowds in turn feed off of the defiance he displays toward Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. My fear now is if one of the two are broken, that is should Mousavi be arrested, or should the crowds be brutally crackdown upon, that relationship could be broken and the movement defeated.

Red Lines Crossed – Video – Scantily Clad Woman Takes to Tehran Streets – Iran Election 2009

I’ve used the term ‘Red Line’ quite a bit and I’m sure a few of you have scratched your head and asked yourself what exactly does that mean. Here is a brief explanation:

Due to the restrictive nature of the Iranian government there are many things that Iranians cannot do. There are restrictions on what can be published, the lyrical contents of the songs put out by music artists, how people go about assembling for protests etc. etc. ‘Red Line’ is the term most often used by journalists in Iran. There are agencies that review the text of any piece that is to be published and report back to the jounalist on whether any of those lines had been crossed. If they have, the journalist then removes the parts authorities had objected to. The same applies to music artists with authorities ensuring the lyrical content of songs not conflict with the values of the Islamic Republic.

Another ‘Red Line’ is how a woman is required to dress. Modest clothing covering all upper extremeties as well as a veil around the head is required of all woman, no negotiations! This leads me to a shocking video I came across on youtube that exhibits perfectly what it means to cross a ‘Red Line’. It is of an Iranian woman walking down the streets of Tehran, with no veil, a tube top, and a dress with slits up both sides of her legs. This is a must see video:

Great Cartoon Depicting Khamenei Position on Vote Recount

Courtesy of tehranbureau.com:

Tweets from @persiankiwi on Wednesday Rally in Tehran

Two tweets just came up from @PersianKiwi (one of the best sources of info in Tehran). He paints an ugly picture, here they are:

I see many ppl with broken arms/legs/heads – blood everywhere – pepper gas like war – #Iranelection

10 minutes ago from web

just in from Baharestan Sq – situation today is terrible – they beat the ppls like animals – #Iranelection RT RT RT

10 minutes ago from web

Stay tuned for more updates on the situation

Picture of the Day: Iranian Jews in Israel Demonstrate!

Courtesy of the LA Times:

{GRAPHIC} Video of Young Man Badly Wounded in Tehran

The video below is a pretty graphic video posted on CitizenTube. It shows a young man, laying on the ground as countless others try to assist him. I’m not quite sure if he’s still alive, but at best he is badly wounded and his face is all bloodied up. Viewer discretion is advised.

A Compromise?

Time magazine’s Tony Karon published an informative piece this morning on the prospects that a grand compromise can be reached between opposition leaders and the Khamenei government, here is an excerpt:

Despite fantasies of insurrection in some of the more fevered Western media assessments of the confrontation, the balance of forces appears to militate against a knockout blow by either side. U.S.-based Iran scholar Farideh Farhi, speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations, stressed that Ahmadinejad and the Supreme leader may not have the majority of the people behind them, “but they do have support. They also have the resources of the state – both financial and military. So that makes them quite robust.”

At the same time, Farhi notes, the opposition coalition includes some very powerful figures from within the regime, who together command the support of a large section of the population. Thus, she warns, “To assume that this will lead ultimately to a victory of one over the other is unrealistic as well as dangerous because it may come at the cost of tremendous violence.” More likely, she argues, is the pursuit of some sort of compromise that allows the regime to back down to some extent, without necessarily surrendering.

As informative as the piece was, I’m not entirely sure I agree Farideh Farhi’s findings. As I’ve written before, some significant ‘redlines’ have been crossed by the opposition movement, among them:

• Calls of ‘Death to the Dictator’, a reference to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei
• Reports of women defying the Islamic Republics laws by taking to the streets without the veil (hejab)
• Open defiance of Ayatollah Khamenei’s edicts, especially by Mousavi himself who has not back down from his original position

I don’t see how either side backs down, or compromises, from the positions they’ve entrenched themselves in. The re-establishment of the status quo ante is in all likelihood not a probable outcome .

We’re more likely to see one of two things happen:

1. An all out crackdown that suppresses the movement to the point where the youth give up and go home. As catastrophic as this scenario sounds, there is a silver lining to it. That silver lining is that after the Shah’s brutal crackdown on protestors in 1963, the stage was set for the uprising of 1978, which culminated in the Revolution of 1979. If this scenario plays itself out, history might repeat itself.
2. Much is made of the military and police manpower held by the Khamenei regime. While its true that the protest movements are grossly outnumbered by these forces, the same held true during the 1978-79 Revolution. Also keep in mind that the Revolutionaries of 1978 did not have the same kind of institutional backing from members of the Shah’s government. This uprising has elements of the Iranian clerical powerbase that lends a great deal of legitimacy to the movement. That can work both for and against the movement. For because of the legitimacy and familiarity with the system that they lend. Against because let’s face it, they’re still part of the very institutions that many in the youth movement would like to see torn down.

Check back for more updates soon!

Reports of Mass Security Presence in Central Tehran

The site of today’s (should be underway now) ‘Sea of Green’ rally in central Tehran has been flooded by security forced. The following was reported by the New York Times:

Update | 7:27 a.m. An opposition rally was reportedly scheduled to to take place at about this time in Baharestan Square, outside Iran’s Parliament. An Iranian blogger in exile in Switzerland wrote in a Twitter update 30 minutes ago that he has heard reports of a massive security presence in this part of Tehran:

More than 10.000 Bassij Milittias get position in Central Tehran, including Baharestan Sq.

The Guardian reports that Al Jazeera’s English-language channel aired a phone call from a woman named Jasmin, who identified herself as one of the protesters in Tehran and said that she is not deterred by the security forces. The woman told Al Jazeera that some of the militia members have flashed the opposition’s signature victory sign to some protesters at previous rallies.

I’ll be following up on this story. Today and Thursday, when a day of mourning has been scheduled, will tell us a lot about the strength of the opposition movement. You can read a previous post on the subject here.

quicknote/Where is Twitter User @Change_for_Iran?

One of the more prominent tweeters from Tehran Change_for_Iran, has gone missing (at least in the Twitter world). After garnering 29,000+ followers, and posting a prolific 540 updates on the situation in Tehran, Change_for_Iran has not had a post since 8:55PM (NY Time) on June 20th. That’s 4 days now. The following was his last post:

I’m going to sleep a little before joining with the others, please pray for all people of Iran & wish us peace & freedom

8:55 PM Jun 20th from web

Was he captured by the Basiji? Severely hurt during a protest? Killed? Or has he simply given up?

Whatever the case may be, I hope he’s alright. He was a great source of information.

Larijani as Intermediary?

According to a report put out by the NIACblog (a reputable source of all things Iran), the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Ali Larijani is working to get opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi airtime on State controlled television to air his grievances. Larijani is known for being close to Ayatollah Khamenei. Whether this is tantamount to an act of defiance or he is acting as an intermediary on behalf of Ayatollah Khamenei remains unclear at the moment. Nevertheless, this is an interesting development that I will continue to report on. Here is the excerpt from the NIACblog:

According to Tahlile Rooz, the speaker of the parliament is trying set up a time for Mousavi to appear on the state TV and discuss his complaints. One of the members of the committee charged with investigating the election violations said “the biased behavior of [IRIB] has fueled the current situation and some authorities including the speaker of parliament are critical of this [behavior].”

According to this member, “Larijani believes that censorship and taking sides by IRIB does not solve the problems or gain people’s trust. Rather, the opposition’s voice must also be heard.”

Stay tuned for more information coming out Tehran…

CNN Report on Clerics Joining Opposition Protests

Powerful imagery in this CNN report: a group of Clerics and Mullah’s have taken it upon themselves to lead anti-Government protests, in essence acting as a buffer between demonstrators and the Basiji. Take a look at the video below:

The report displays the rift unfolding within Iran’s ruling class. For those of you not familiar with Iran’s power structure, a great deal of power is concentrated in the hands of the Clerics, whose center of power is based in the city of Qom. For more on Iran’s unfolding power struggle please read my previous posts here and here.

Late Night Update: Morning in Tehran

I’ve come across some interesting bits of information:

The Huffington Post is reporting on reports (reporting on reports, see the nature of getting information on the situation in Iran?) that opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi is under 24-hour house arrest. Additionally, there is an interesting piece from an Iranian daily newspaper, Kayhan. The newspaper lays out the case for arresting Mousavi. This holds significance since the newspaper is known to be close and sympathetic to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Below are the reports:

From Huffington Post:

8:35PM ET — Mousavi under house arrest? Reza Aslan, along with others, are tweeting that Mousavi is under house arrest

5:59 PM ET — Newspaper making the case for Mousavi’s arrest. NIAC has a potentially significant update about how the government is planning to undermine Mousavi.

The newspaper Kayhan, which is closely affiliated with the Supreme Leader, has an article in Thursday’s paper laying the groundwork for Mousavi’s arrest.

This is a strong indication that either the government will attempt to arrest Mr. Mousavi soon or that they want Mousavi to fear that they will do so.

As I reported earlier, the Mousavi movement has called for a ‘Sea of  Green’ rally in Tehran for Wednesday. We should know in a few hours time whether the Mousavi house arrest rumors are true.

Iran Election 2009 – Tuesday Roundup

Guardian Council rules out vote nullification: “Iran’s Guardian Council rules out the possibility of nullifying the country’s June 12 Presidential election, saying there has been no record of any major irregularity.”

Iran to create special court to try election protesters: “Ebrahim Raisi, a top official in Iran’s judiciary branch, said tribunals will be set up after a preliminary investigation to process hundreds of “rioters” and “thugs” caught in security sweeps during the unrest. ‘The judiciary will set up special courts for those cases which are passed on to the judiciary,’ he said in comments broadcast on state television. ‘Hopefully, they will receive their legal punishments and our dear people will be informed of their punishments.’”

Thursday’s Sea of Green Mousavi Rally Has Been Pushed Up to Wednesday: According to Twitter, Facebook, and New York Times reports, the rally originally scheduled for Thursday has now been moved up to Wednesday at 4:30PM (7AM NY Time). I originally posted a piece about what to look for at Thursdays rally, you can find it below:

quickpost/Waiting For Thursday Wednesday in Tehran

As I posted last night the Mousavi camp has called for a mass rally for Thursday Wednesday in Tehran. People have been asking the question, why Thursday Wednesday? Why not Tuesday? Or everyday? Here are a few things to keep in mind:

The memorial service that was called for Monday for Neda Agha Sultan did not give people enough time to spread the word. Only a few hundred people showed up and they were quickly dispersed by riot police and Basiji. Why? The government has done an exceptional job of cutting off almost all forms of communication: SMS Text, Internet, Cellular, and periodically even land lines. This has made it exceedingly difficult for the opposition to organize itself effectively.

For those reasons the opposition has found it necessary to announce major rallies three whole days in advance (at a minimum) in order to give the power of ‘word of mouth’ an opportunity to mobilize the tens of thousands of people that will be necessary to sustain any rally.

That in turn gives the government plenty of time to mobilize its forces to the necessary levels.

You put it all together and you have what is shaping up to be a fascinating Thursday Wednesday in Tehran. Will the opposition mobilize enough people? If so, will there be a mass crackdown (the answer is yes). The size of Wednesday’s demonstration will give us a better idea of the strength and determination of the opposition.

This is an interesting post from the NYTimes: In Iran, everyone thinks their view represents the view of the majority: “‘Look who supports Ahmadinejad, it’s just sectarian groups, a minority,’ said Parisa, a 26-year-old woman at a rally for Mr. Moussavi last week. At a rally the next day for Mr. Ahmadinejad, Muhammad Ali, a 49-year-old English teacher, said with equal sincerity: ‘Ahmadinejad belongs to all the people, not just one group. But Moussavi and the others, they are just from a narrow sector.’

Date to Watch: PressTV Iran is reporting that a date has been set for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s swearing in. Find it here.

Obama: For more on President Obama’s stronger line on Iran at his press conference today, read my commentary here.

That’s all for now, but check back early tomorrow morning for reports on Wednesday afternoons mass rally scheduled in Tehran!

Obama on Iran, Part III

Alright, I know I swore to not broach this topic again, but today’s press conference with President Obama marked a significant shift in America’s public position on the ongoing events in Iran, hence I find it relevant to provide commentary on the subject (hopefully for the last time). Below you’ll find the Presidents opening statement on Iran, commentary after the jump:

First, I’d like to say a few words about the situation in Iran. The United States and the international community have been appalled and outraged by the threats, the beatings, and imprisonments of the last few days. I strongly condemn these unjust actions, and I join with the American people in mourning each and every innocent life that is lost.

I’ve made it clear that the United States respects the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and is not interfering with Iran’s affairs. But we must also bear witness to the courage and the dignity of the Iranian people, and to a remarkable opening within Iranian society. And we deplore the violence against innocent civilians anywhere that it takes place.

The Iranian people are trying to have a debate about their future. Some in Iran — some in the Iranian government, in particular, are trying to avoid that debate by accusing the United States and others in the West of instigating protests over the election. These accusations are patently false. They’re an obvious attempt to distract people from what is truly taking place within Iran’s borders. This tired strategy of using old tensions to scapegoat other countries won’t work anymore in Iran. This is not about the United States or the West; this is about the people of Iran, and the future that they — and only they — will choose.

The Iranian people can speak for themselves. That’s precisely what’s happened in the last few days. In 2009, no iron fist is strong enough to shut off the world from bearing witness to peaceful protests [sic] of justice. Despite the Iranian government’s efforts to expel journalists and isolate itself, powerful images and poignant words have made their way to us through cell phones and computers, and so we’ve watched what the Iranian people are doing.

This is what we’ve witnessed. We’ve seen the timeless dignity of tens of thousands of Iranians marching in silence. We’ve seen people of all ages risk everything to insist that their votes are counted and that their voices are heard. Above all, we’ve seen courageous women stand up to the brutality and threats, and we’ve experienced the searing image of a woman bleeding to death on the streets. While this loss is raw and extraordinarily painful, we also know this: Those who stand up for justice are always on the right side of history.

As I said in Cairo, suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. The Iranian people have a universal right to assembly and free speech. If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect those rights and heed the will of its own people. It must govern through consent and not coercion. That’s what Iran’s own people are calling for, and the Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government.

President Obama’s tougher stance on Iran carries many perils. Domestic politics played a consideration in this, perhaps more than the events in Tehran. The Republican party has been adept at driving home criticism of the President, moreover, they were able to frame the debate as standing with the demonstrators versus standing with the Regime.

With all the redlines that have been crossed by the pro-Reform movement I don’t see any chance that the current Regime in Tehran will be able to rally the movement around an allegation that the U.S. is meddling in internal Iranian affairs, so that ship has sailed.

The risk that President Obama runs with his strong statements is one where the opposition in Iran misinterprets his words as an implicit endorsement of their movement. That’s dangerous because when Khamenei and Ahmadinejad decide in favor of an all-out crackdown (and that will happen at some point), the youth of Iran will look to the outside world for assistance. If President Obama does not convert his strong words of support into concrete support (i.e. American assistance), the U.S. risks losing the younger generation in Iran forever, and remember, 70% of Iranians are under the age 0f 32. That’s what I call a cold winter.

Please check back later on for a recap of the days events in Iran

quickpost/Waiting For Thursday in Tehran

As I posted last night the Mousavi camp has called for a mass rally for Thursday in Tehran. People have been asking the question, why Thursday? Why not Tuesday? Or everyday? Here are a few things to keep in mind:

1. The memorial service that was called for Monday for Neda Agha Sultan did not give people enough time to spread the word. Only a few hundred people showed up and they were quickly dispersed by riot police and Basiji. Why? The government has done an exceptional job of cutting off almost all forms of communication: SMS Text, Internet, Cellular, and periodically even land lines. This has made it exceedingly difficult for the opposition to organize itself effectively.
2. For those reasons the opposition has found it necessary to announce major rallies three whole days in advance (at a minimum) in order to give the power of ‘word of mouth’ an opportunity to mobilize the tens of thousands of people that will be necessary to sustain any rally.
3. That in turn gives the government plenty of time to mobilize its forces to the necessary levels.

You put it all together and you have what is shaping up to be a fascinating Thursday in Tehran. Will the opposition mobilize enough people? If so, will there be a mass crackdown (the answer is yes).

We’ll be able to tell a lot from the strength (and determination) of the opposition come Thursday. Stay tuned.

The Iranian Election and the Revolution Test

Stratfor, a Global Intelligence firm has published a study on the Iranian elections. The following are excerpts from the study. For the full report please go here.

Revolutions fail when no one joins the initial segment, meaning the initial demonstrators are the ones who find themselves socially isolated. When the demonstrations do not spread to other cities, the demonstrations either peter out or the regime brings in the security and military forces — who remain loyal to the regime and frequently personally hostile to the demonstrators — and use force to suppress the rising to the extent necessary. This is what happened in Tiananmen Square in China: The students who rose up were not joined by others. Military forces who were not only loyal to the regime but hostile to the students were brought in, and the students were crushed.

In this respect the report makes an undeniable claim. Although we’ve seen reports coming out of other cities in Iran indicating unrest, reporting on the matter has not been concrete. What the Stratfor report fails to recognize in its Tiananmen Square analogy is that the Communist Party of China approached the student protestors with a unified command, there was no dissent in the government ranks. The government in Iran does not enjoy that luxury today. I’ve written about the ongoing internal power struggle occuring in Iran – You can find those posts here and here.